Allan Lichtman
American political historian
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Why Is Allan Lichtman Influential?
(Suggest an Edit or Addition)According to Wikipedia, Allan Jay Lichtman is an American historian. He has taught at American University in Washington, D.C. since 1973. Lichtman created the Keys to the White House model with Soviet seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981. The model uses 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the presidential candidate of the incumbent party will win or lose the next election. Using this model, Lichtman has accurately predicted the winner of every U.S. presidential election since 1984, with the exception of 2000. He ran for the U.S. Senate seat from Maryland in 2006, finishing in sixth place in the Democratic primary. In 2017, Lichtman published The Case for Impeachment, laying out multiple arguments for the impeachment of Donald Trump.
Allan Lichtman's Published Works
Published Works
- Ecological Inference (1978) (199)
- The Keys to the White House (1996) (42)
- Pattern recognition applied to presidential elections in the United States, 1860-1980: Role of integral social, economic, and political traits. (1981) (39)
- Correlation, Regression, and the Ecological Fallacy: A Critique (1974) (39)
- Ecological Regression Analysis in the Los Angeles County Case and Beyond (1991) (36)
- White Protestant Nation: The Rise of the American Conservative Movement (2008) (34)
- Prejudice and the Old Politics: The Presidential Election of 1928 (1980) (31)
- Critical Election Theory and the Reality of American Presidential Politics, 1916–40 (1976) (28)
- On Capitol Hill: The Struggle to Reform Congress and Its Consequences, 1948-2000 (2005) (24)
- The keys to the white house: An index forecast for 2008 (2008) (23)
- Disenfranchising Democracy: Constructing the Electorate in the United States, the United Kingdom, and France (2021) (16)
- Historians and the living past : the theory and practice of historical study (1979) (15)
- The keys to the White House, 1996 : a surefire guide to predicting the next president (1997) (15)
- The end of realignment theory? Toward a new research program for American political history (1982) (14)
- The Logic of Policy Dispute. (1980) (13)
- The thirteen keys to the presidency (1988) (13)
- Aggregate-level analysis and prediction of midterm senatorial elections in the United States, 1974-1986. (1989) (12)
- The Keys to the White House: A Preliminary Forecast for 2012 (2010) (12)
- The Federal Assault Against Voting Discrimination in the Deep South: 1957-1967 (1969) (11)
- Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008 (2006) (10)
- Political Realignment and ‘Ethnocultural’ Voting in Late Nineteenth Century America (1983) (9)
- The Political Power of Protest: Minority Activism and Shifts in Public Policy (2014) (8)
- Kin and communities : families in America (1979) (8)
- Policy Dispute and Paradigm Evaluation: A Response to Rowland. (1982) (7)
- The Self-Organization of American Society in Presidential and Senatorial Elections (1993) (6)
- A General Theory of Vote Dilution (1993) (6)
- The Alternative-Justification Affirmative: A New Case Form. (1973) (6)
- “New Political History”: Some Statistical Questions Answered (1981) (5)
- What Really Happened in Florida’s 2000 Presidential Election (2003) (5)
- The Embattled Vote in America: From the Founding to the Present (2018) (4)
- Ecological Regression Versus Homogeneous Units: A Specification Analysis (1978) (4)
- A General Theory of the Counterplan (1975) (4)
- The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2020 (2020) (4)
- Modeling the past: The Specification of Functional Form (1983) (3)
- FDR and the Jews (2013) (2)
- Kin and Communities: Families in America. Smithsonian International Symposia Series (1980) (2)
- Your Family History: How to Use Oral History, Personal Family Archives and Public Documents to Discover Your Heritage (1978) (2)
- Modeling the Past: A Note on the Search for Proper Form (1980) (1)
- Solutions to Problems of Aggregation Bias (1978) (1)
- The Neoconservative Revolution: Jewish Intellectuals and the Shaping of Public Policy (review) (2008) (1)
- Competing Models of the Debate Process. (1986) (1)
- The Election of 1920 (2013) (1)
- HIST 380/680-001: American Conservatism - course syllabus (2009) (0)
- Continuity and Change in Electoral Politics, 1893–1928. By Paul Kleppner. (Westport: Greenwood, 1987. xvii + 263 pp. $35.00.) (1988) (0)
- 14 Negotiations and Rescue in Hungary (2013) (0)
- Who Voted? The Dynamics of Electoral Turnout, 1870–1980. By Paul Kleppner. (New York: Praeger, 1982. xiii + 238 pp. Tables, appendix, notes, bibliography, and index. $26.95.) (1983) (0)
- Conclusion: The Embattled Vote (2018) (0)
- 3 The Democrat and the Dictator (2013) (0)
- Associate Editors (2001) (0)
- The Keys to Election 2004: Thirteen Diagnostic Questions Prove to Be a Surprisingly Accurate Barometer for Presidential Elections (2004) (0)
- The Keys to Election 2000. (1999) (0)
- GEOGRAPHY AS DESTINY (2016) (0)
- 9 Tightened Security (2013) (0)
- Extreme Events in Socio-economic and Political Complex Systems, Predictability of (2009) (0)
- Does Obama Keep the Keys to the White House (2012) (0)
- 2 FDR Returns (2013) (0)
- The Updated Verdict of the Keys. (2008) (0)
- Introduction Four Roosevelts (2013) (0)
- Ballard C. Campbell, Representative Democracy: Public Policy and Midwestern Legislatures in the Late Nineteenth Century (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1980) $20.00. (1983) (0)
- 10 Wartime America (2013) (0)
- 7. The New Wars over the Vote (2018) (0)
- 11 Debating Remedies (2013) (0)
- Aggregation Bias and Standardized Measures (1978) (0)
- Election 2000: The Keys Point to Gore. (2000) (0)
- Language Games, Social Science, and Public Policy: The Case of the Family (1981) (0)
- 8 Toward War (2013) (0)
- Conclusion: Aggregation, Computation, and Theory (1978) (0)
- History, Social Science Methods Used in (2005) (0)
- Geography as Destiny@@@Sectionalism and American Political Development: 1880-1980. (1985) (0)
- The Embattled Vote in America (2020) (0)
- 1 The Rise and Fall of FDR (2013) (0)
- Passing the Test (1991) (0)
- Alfred E. Smith: The Happy Warrior. By Christopher M. Finan. (New York: Hill & Wang, 2002. x, 396 pp. $26.00, ISBN 0-8090-3033-0.) (2003) (0)
- 12 Zionism and the Arab World (2013) (0)
- 13 The War Refugee Board (2013) (0)
- The Keys to the White House: Who Will be the Next American President?. (1996) (0)
- 4 Immigration Wars (2013) (0)
- 7 Resettlement in Latin America (2013) (0)
- The Keys to the White House: Prediction for 2012. (2008) (0)
- The Verdict of the Keys: Thirteen Diagnostic Questions Can Identify the Line between Victory and Defeat (2004) (0)
- Kin and Communities. (1981) (0)
- Realignment: The Theory That Changed the Way We Think about American Politics. By Theodore Rosenof. (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, 2003. xvi, 231 pp. Cloth, $75.00, ISBN 0-7425-3104-X. Paper, $26.95, ISBN 0- 7425-3105-8.) (2004) (0)
- Modeling the Past: The Specification of (2016) (0)
- 6 Moving Millions (2013) (0)
- The Rise of Big Government: Not As Simple As It Seems (1998) (0)
- Aggregation Bias and Unstandardized Coefficients: Problems of Specification (1978) (0)
- Post-Election Interview with Allan Lichtman (2020) (0)
- DIVISION OF THE HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCES CALIFORNIA OF TECHNOLOGY (2011) (0)
- Exhibit E: (2020) (0)
- Critical Elections in Historical Perspective (1982) (0)
- Conference: Supreme Court, Racial Politics, and the Right to Vote: Shaw v. Reno and the Future of the Voting Rights Act (1994) (0)
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