Peter Turchin

Q: What Schools Are Affiliated With Peter Turchin

Peter Turchin is affiliated with the following schools: University of Cape Town, Duke University, University of Oxford, New York University, University of Connecticut

Russian scientist

Why Is Peter Turchin Influential?

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According to Wikipedia, Peter Valentinovich Turchin is a Russian-American complexity scientist, specializing in an area of study he and his colleagues developed called cliodynamics—mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of the dynamics of historical societies. He is currently Editor-in-Chief at Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution. , he is a director of the Evolution Institute.

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Peter Turchin's Published Works

Number of citations in a given year to any of this author's works

Total number of citations to an author for the works they published in a given year. This highlights publication of the most important work(s) by the author

Published Papers

Quantitative analysis of movement : measuring and modeling population redistribution in animals and plants (1998) (1331)
Complex Dynamics in Ecological Time Series (1992) (547)
Quantitative Analysis Of Movement (1998) (499)
Chaos in Ecology: Is Mother Nature a Strange Attractor?* (1993) (498)
Population oscillations of boreal rodents: regulation by mustelid predators leads to chaos (1993) (457)
SMALL‐RODENT DYNAMICS AND PREDATION (2001) (447)
Chaos in a Noisy World: New Methods and Evidence from Time-Series Analysis (1995) (444)
Rarity of density dependence or population regulation with lags? (1990) (435)
Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis (2013) (374)
Population Regulation" Old Arguments and a New Synthesis (1995) (372)
Scale and heterogeneity in habitat selection by elk in Yellowstone National Park (2003) (366)
WHY DO POPULATIONS CYCLE? A SYNTHESIS OF STATISTICAL AND MECHANISTIC MODELING APPROACHES (1999) (366)
Translating Foraging Movements in Heterogeneous Environments into the Spatial Distribution of Foragers (1991) (356)
Complex Population Dynamics (2003) (322)
Population regulation : a synthetic view (1999) (310)
MASTING BY EIGHTEEN NEW ZEALAND PLANT SPECIES: THE ROLE OF TEMPERATURE AS A SYNCHRONIZING CUE (2002) (289)
An Empirically Based Model for Latitudinal Gradient in Vole Population Dynamics (1997) (271)
Aggregation in Aphis Varians: An Effective Strategy for Reducing Predation Risk (1989) (247)
[Does population ecology have general laws?]. (2001) (244)
War, space, and the evolution of Old World complex societies (2013) (242)
Quantifying Dispersal of Southern Pine Beetles with Mark-Recapture Experiments and a Diffusion Model. (1993) (207)
Are lemmings prey or predators? (2000) (206)
Habitat structure and population persistence in an experimental community (2001) (204)
Identifying the density-dependent structure underlying ecological time series (2001) (189)
Fractal Analyses of Animal Movement: A Critique (1996) (185)
Complex societies precede moralizing gods throughout world history (2019) (184)
AVAILABILITY OF FOOD AND THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF ARVICOLINE RODENTS (2001) (171)
War and Peace and War: The Life Cycles of Imperial Nations (2005) (151)
Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall (2003) (149)
Why Do Populations of Southern Pine Beetles (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) Fluctuate? (1991) (147)
DYNAMICAL EFFECTS OF PLANT QUALITY AND PARASITISM ON POPULATION CYCLES OF LARCH BUDMOTH (2003) (141)
A theory for formation of large empires* (2009) (141)
Living on the edge of chaos: population dynamics of fennoscandian voles (2000) (138)
Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization (2017) (132)
Population Consequences of Aggregative Movement (1989) (130)
The attraction of the known: the importance of spatial familiarity in habitat selection in wapiti Cervus elaphus (2009) (123)
Chaos and stability in rodent population dynamics: evidence from non-linear time-series analysis (1993) (120)
Seshat: The Global History Databank (2015) (114)
Evolution of complex hierarchical societies (2009) (111)
Quantifying insect movement in the field (1991) (111)
Contrasting alternative hypotheses about rodent cycles by translating them into parameterized models (2001) (94)
Measuring the effective sampling area of a pheromone trap for monitoring population density of southern pine beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) (1996) (89)
The pattern and range of movement of a checkered beetle predator relative to its bark beetle prey (2000) (87)
Cultural evolution of religion (2013) (85)
Warfare and the Evolution of Social Complexity: A Multilevel-Selection Approach (2010) (84)
Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States (2005) (80)
Influence of host-plant density and male harassment on the distribution of female Euphydryas anicia (Nymphalidae) (1989) (77)
Modelling the effect of host patch size on Mexican bean beetle emigration (1986) (76)
Arise 'cliodynamics' (2008) (75)
Evolution of cooperative strategies from first principles (2006) (75)
POPULATION CYCLES IN THE PINE LOOPER MOTH: DYNAMICAL TESTS OF MECHANISTIC HYPOTHESES (2005) (71)
Long‐Term Population Cycles in Human Societies (2009) (71)
Population Dynamics and Internal Warfare: A Reconsideration * (2006) (67)
Southern Pine Beetle Infestation Development: Interaction Between Pine and Hardwood Basal Areas (1993) (66)
When can noise induce chaos and why does it matter: a critique (2005) (64)
Spatial Synchrony Among and Within World-Systems: Insights From Theoretical Ecology (2003) (60)
Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis (MPB-35) (2013) (57)
Effects of density and season on the population rate of change in the meadow vole (1997) (56)
East-West Orientation of Historical Empires and Modern States (2006) (54)
DETECTION OF DELAYED DENSITY DEPENDENCE: COMMENT (1997) (51)
Scramble competition in the southern pine beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis (1998) (51)
Dynamics of political instability in the United States, 1780–2010 (2012) (50)
Animal Groups in Three Dimensions: Individual decisions, traffic rules, and emergent pattern in schooling fish (1997) (49)
Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall: Why States Rise and Fall (2004) (46)
Political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade. (2010) (45)
Explaining the Rise of Moralizing Religions: A test of competing hypotheses using the Seshat Databank (2019) (40)
Grand challenges for the study of cultural evolution (2017) (39)
Population Cycles of the Autumnal Moth in Fennoscandia (2002) (39)
A Historical Database of Sociocultural Evolution (2012) (36)
The Puzzle of Human Ultrasociality (2013) (36)
Cycling in the Complexity of Early Societies (2010) (35)
Agricultural productivity in past societies: Toward an empirically informed model for testing cultural evolutionary hypotheses (2015) (35)
Detecting cycles and delayed density dependence: a comment on Hunter & Price (1998 ) (2000) (33)
Ecology: Evolution in population dynamics (2003) (33)
Analyzing genetic connections between languages by matching consonant classes (2010) (32)
PERIODIC DYNAMICS IN DAPHNIA POPULATIONS: BIOLOGICAL INTERACTIONS AND EXTERNAL FORCING (2000) (30)
An Incidental-Effect Hypothesis Explaining Aggregation of Males in a Population of Euphydryas anicia (1988) (30)
Area-wide efficacy of a localized forest pest management practice (1999) (29)
INFERRING COLONIZATION PROCESSES FROM POPULATION DYNAMICS IN SPATIALLY STRUCTURED PREDATOR–PREY SYSTEMS (2000) (26)
A Macroscope for Global History: Seshat Global History Databank, a methodological overview (2016) (25)
Chaos in microtine populations (1995) (25)
Historical Dynamics (2018) (24)
Coin hoards speak of population declines in Ancient Rome (2009) (23)
Modeling Social Pressures Toward Political Instability (2013) (21)
The role of aggregation in the response of Mexican bean beetles to host-plant density (1987) (19)
Evidence for Predator-Prey Cycles in a Bark Beetle (2002) (19)
Reconstructing endogenous dynamics of a laboratory Drosophila population (1991) (18)
Group Report: Millennial Perspectives on the Dynamic Interaction of Climate, People, and Resources (2007) (18)
4 The Puzzle of Human Ultrasociality How Did Large-Scale Complex Societies Evolve ? (2013) (17)
Response to commentaries 'The Role of Ritual in the Evolution of Social Complexity: Five predictions and a drum roll' (2015) (16)
Nonlinear time-series modeling of vole population fluctuations (1996) (16)
Cultural evolution of the structure of human groups (2013) (16)
Evolution of institutions and organizations (2016) (15)
A Systematic Assessment of “Axial Age” Proposals Using Global Comparative Historical Evidence (2018) (15)
Bullia digitalis (Gastropoda) actively pursues moving prey by swash‐riding (1992) (14)
Effects of thinning on development of southern pine beetle infestations in old growth stands (1999) (14)
Fitting Dynamic Regression Models to Seshat Data (2018) (14)
Modelling Time-Series Data (2000) (14)
Beyond simple diffusion: models of not-so-simple movement of animals and cells (1989) (14)
8 Modeling periodic waves of integration in the Afro-Eurasian world-system (2007) (14)
Linking “Micro” to “Macro” Models of State Breakdown to Improve Methods for Political Forecasting (2017) (14)
The Effect of Host-plant Density on the Numbers of Mexican Bean Beetles, Epilachna varivestis (1988) (14)
The logistic equation revisited: Final instalment. (1993) (14)
AN EXPERIMENTAL TEST OF FRAGMENTATION AND LOSS OF HABITAT WITH ORYZAEPHILUS SURINAMENSIS (2003) (13)
Evaluation of traps used to monitor southern pine beetle aerial populations and sex ratios (2000) (12)
Duration of agriculture and distance from the steppe predict the evolution of large-scale human societies in Afro-Eurasia (2020) (11)
Ages of Discord (2016) (11)
Dacura: A new solution to data harvesting and knowledge extraction for the historical sciences (2018) (11)
Toward Cliodynamics – an Analytical, Predictive Science of History - eScholarship (2011) (10)
Analyzing Covid-19 Data using SIRD Models (2020) (10)
Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies from the Neolithic to the Industrial Revolution (2020) (10)
A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social Breakdown, Recovery, and Resilience (2018) (10)
A Primer on Statistical Analysis of Dynamical Systems in Historical Social Sciences (with a Particular Emphasis on Secular Cycles) (2005) (9)
Scientific Prediction in Historical Sociology : Ibn Khaldun meets (2011) (9)
Mapping the Spread of Mounted Warfare (2017) (9)
Animal Groups in Three Dimensions: Quantitative analysis of animal movements in congregations (1997) (9)
An Introduction to Seshat (2019) (8)
Strange Parallels: Patterns in Eurasian Social Evolution (2011) (7)
The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010–2020 decade: A retrospective assessment (2020) (7)
Retraction Note: Complex societies precede moralizing gods throughout world history (2021) (7)
Religion and empire in the Axial Age (2012) (7)
Reply to Beheim et al.: Reanalyses confirm robustness of original analyses (2019) (7)
Building the Seshat Ontology for a Global History Databank (2016) (6)
Big Gods did not drive the rise of big societies throughout world history (2021) (6)
An introduction to Seshat: Global History Databank (2019) (5)
TRANSLATING FORAGING MOVEMENTS IN HETEROGENEOUS (1991) (5)
An integrative approach to estimating productivity in past societies using Seshat: Global History Databank (2019) (5)
Upward Sweeps in The Historical Evolution of World-Systems (2006) (4)
Animal Groups in Three Dimensions: Movements of animals in congregations: An Eulerian analysis of bark beetle swarming (1997) (4)
Crop Productivity Estimates for Past Societies in the World Sample-30 of Seshat: Global History Databank (2019) (4)
New Era in the Study of Global History Is Born but It Needs to Be Nurtured (2019) (4)
Cultural group selection is plausible, but the predictions of its hypotheses should be tested with real-world data (2016) (4)
What Economics Models Really Say. A Review of Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science by Dani Rodrik (Norton, 2015) (2017) (4)
Lessons from Brexit (2016) (3)
East-West Orientation of Historical Empires (2004) (3)
Launching the Journal (2010) (3)
Testing the Big Gods hypothesis with global historical data: a review and “retake” (2022) (3)
Reply to Tosh et al.: Quantitative analyses of cultural evolution require engagement with historical and archaeological research (2018) (3)
The Equinox2020 Seshat Data Release (2020) (3)
Disentangling the evolutionary drivers of social complexity: A comprehensive test of hypotheses (2022) (3)
Failed States and Nation-Building: A Cultural Evolutionary Perspective (2012) (3)
A Theory for the Formation of Large Agrarian Empires (2008) (3)
Tempo and Mode in Cultural Macroevolution (2021) (3)
Cultivating human culture (2015) (2)
History of agriculture and intensity of warfare shaped the evolution of large-scale human societies in Afro-Eurasia (2019) (2)
Building nations after conflict (2008) (2)
A mechanistic approach to understanding and predicting southern pine beetle dynamics (1993) (2)
Reply to Thomas: Diffusion of military technologies is a plausible explanation for the evolution of social complexity, 1500 BCE–AD 1500 (2014) (2)
Cultural Evolution and Cliodynamics (2014) (2)
P . Turchin * SOCIAL TIPPING POINTS AND TREND REVERSALS : A HISTORICAL APPROACH (2012) (1)
COMPLEX DYNAMICS IN ECOLOGICAL TIME SERIES 1 (2007) (1)
Disentangling the Evolutionary Drivers of Social Complexity in Human History: a Comprehensive Test of Hypotheses (2021) (1)
UC Irvine Structure and Dynamics Title Comment on : Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States by (2005) (1)
Analyzing Movement: An Indispensable New Reference@@@Quantitative Analysis of Movement: Measuring and Modeling Population Redistribution in Animals and Plants (1999) (1)
Inherent Collapse? (2020) (1)
Multipath Forecasting: the Aftermath of the 2020 American Crisis (2021) (1)
A new era in the study of global history is born but it needs to be nurtured (2019) (1)
Big Gods and big science: further reflections on theory, data, and analysis (2022) (1)
East-West Orientation of Historical (2006) (1)
The SESHAT Databank Project: the 2014 Report (2014) (1)
An Issue Devoted to Dialogue - eScholarship (2013) (0)
Part I. Theory (2013) (0)
THEORY An ecological illustration of dynamical interactions characterized by lags (2003) (0)
The Special Issue on Failed States and Nation-Building (2012) (0)
Comment on: Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States by Peter Turchin (2005) (0)
Introduction 1.1 at the Sources (2002) (0)
SECULAR CYCLES : LONG-TERM OSCILLATIONS IN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL STRUCTURES OF AGRARIAN SOCIETIES (2004) (0)
The Great Escape: A Review Essay on Escape from Rome: The Failure of Empire and the Road to Prosperity by Walter Scheidel (Princeton University Press, 2019) (2021) (0)
of Theoretical and Mathematical History UC Riverside (2013) (0)
Complex Dynamics in Ecological Time Series Author ( s ) : (2007) (0)
Why Did Europe Conquer the World? By Philip T. Hoffman. (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2015. Pp. 288. $29.95.) (2017) (0)
Chapter 3. Early Modern England: The Tudor-Stuart Cycle (1485–1730) (2009) (0)
The West and the Rest The Science of the Great Divergence (2013) (0)
The Next Financial Crisis (2019) (0)
Response to Lempert: Holism versus Systems Analysis (2018) (0)
Reflections on Axiality Evolutionary Legacy or Historical Consciousness? (2019) (0)
Chapter 4. Medieval France: The Capetian Cycle (1150–1450) (2009) (0)
Towards Computational Social Sustainability (2017) (0)
Henrich, Joseph. 2015. The Secret of Our Success: How Culture Is Driving Human Evolution, Domesticating Our Species, and Making Us Smarter. (2017) (0)
Flattening the Curve: Learning the lessons of world history to mitigate societal crises (2022) (0)
Chapter 10. General Conclusions (2009) (0)
Chapter 2. Medieval England: The Plantagenet Cycle (1150–1485) (2009) (0)
Cultural Evolution in (2010) (0)
Chapter 9. Russia: The Romanov Cycle (1620–1922) (2009) (0)
Chapter 6. Rome: The Republican Cycle (350–30 BCE) (2009) (0)
Part II. Data (2013) (0)
Chapter Nine. Case Studies (2004) (0)
A FOOT IN THE RIVER: WHY OUR LIVES CHANGE-AND THE LIMITS OF EVOLUTION By Felipe Fernandez-Armesto (2017) (0)
Editor's Column: An Issue Devoted to Dialogue (2013) (0)
Part III. Case Studies (2013) (0)
Chapter 1. Introduction: The Theoretical Background (2009) (0)
Chapter 7. Rome: The Principate Cycle (30 BCE–285 CE) (2009) (0)
Introducing a New Section—Databases - eScholarship (2012) (0)
Chapter 8. Russia: The Muscovy Cycle (1460–1620) (2009) (0)
II. CYCLICAL PROCESSES IN PRE-INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES 4 Cycling in the Complexity of Early Societies (2014) (0)
Chapter 5. Early Modern France: The Valois Cycle (1450–1660) (2009) (0)
Did food and fuel help shape our value systems (2015) (0)
12 Evolution of Institutions and Organizations (2016) (0)
Chapter Seven. The Demographic-Structural Theory (2004) (0)
Translating Knowledge about Past Societies into Seshat Data (2018) (0)
Editors’ Note: New Publication Policies at Cliodynamics (2021) (0)
Introducing a New Section—Databases (2012) (0)
Response to Oscillations in Population Sizes – From Ecology to History (2005) (0)
BOOK REVIEW ESSAY: STRANGE PARALLELS: PATTERNS IN EURASIAN SOCIAL EVOLUTION (2015) (0)
Combining historical and archaeological data with crop models to estimate agricultural productivity in past societies (2020) (0)
Index to Volume 149 (1997) (0)
Exponential growth − the first law of population dynamics (2000) (0)
Units and Currencies (2009) (0)
An Issue Devoted to Dialogue (2013) (0)
Introducing the Social Evolution Forum (2011) (0)
Seshat: Global History Databank Publishes First Set of Historical Data (2017) (0)

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What Schools Are Affiliated With Peter Turchin?

Peter Turchin is affiliated with the following schools: