# Ray Fair

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Most Influential Person Now

American economist

## Ray Fair's AcademicInfluence.com Rankings

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Economics

## Why Is Ray Fair Influential?

(Suggest an Edit or Addition)According to Wikipedia, Ray Clarence Fair is the John M. Musser Professor of Economics at Yale University. Fair received his B.A. from Fresno State College in 1964 and his Ph.D. from MIT in 1968. He spent several years at Princeton University before moving to Yale. He is now a professor within the Cowles Foundation and the International Center for Finance.

## Ray Fair's Published Works

### Published Works

- The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President (1978) (924)
- Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rationalexpectations Models (1980) (521)
- Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models (1990) (475)
- Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium (1972) (462)
- The Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Lagged Endogenous Variables and First Order Serially Correlated Errors (1970) (411)
- Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models. (1985) (295)
- Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations (1987) (254)
- Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural Change (1988) (224)
- Events that Shook the Market (2000) (197)
- A Theory of Extramarital Affairs (1978) (177)
- Econometrics and Presidential Elections (1996) (175)
- Testing Macroeconometric Models (1995) (157)
- Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States (2000) (156)
- The effect of economic events on votes for president: 1984 update (1987) (135)
- International Evidence on the Demand for Money (1986) (135)
- Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works (2004) (132)
- The Production Smoothing Model is Alive and Well (1989) (132)
- Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models (1980) (119)
- The Informational Context of Ex Ante Forecasts (1989) (117)
- The short-run demand for workers and hours (1970) (115)
- The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts (1988) (104)
- The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1980 Results (1982) (100)
- Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium: A Further Study (1974) (99)
- Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale (1986) (91)
- Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations (2007) (87)
- The effect of economic events on votes for president: 1992 update (1996) (82)
- A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator (1977) (78)
- How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down? (1991) (78)
- The Sensitivity of Fiscal Policy Effects to Assumptions about the Behavior of the Federal Reserve (1978) (77)
- The Optimal Distribution of Income (1971) (76)
- DISEQUILIBRIUM IN HOUSING MODELS (1972) (76)
- Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Macroeconometric Models (1993) (75)
- A Short-Run Forecasting Model of the United States Economy. (1973) (75)
- An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models (1979) (72)
- Evaluating the predictive accuracy of models (1986) (68)
- Evaluating alternative monetary policy rules (1996) (63)
- An Analysis of a Macro-Econometric Model with Rational Expectations in the Bond and Stock Markets (1977) (59)
- Has Macro Progressed? (2009) (57)
- A model of macroeconomic activity (1974) (57)
- On the Robust Estimation of Econometric Models (1974) (55)
- Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess (2006) (53)
- Inference in Econometric Models with Structural Change (1987) (50)
- Estimated Age Effects in Baseball (2007) (49)
- Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconomic Models Using Stochastic Simulation (1991) (47)
- Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations (1991) (45)
- Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and Exchange Rates (2001) (44)
- Efficient estimation of simultaneous equations with auto-regressive errors by instrumental variables (1972) (43)
- A Comparison of Alternative Estimators of Macroeconomic Models (1973) (40)
- The Determination of Yield Differentials between Debt Instruments of the Same Maturity (1971) (39)
- Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy (2003) (38)
- Excess Labor and the Business Cycle (1984) (37)
- Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Linear Equation Systems with Auto-Regressive Residuals (1973) (32)
- Actual Federal Reserve Policy Behavior and Interest Rate Rules (2001) (31)
- ESTIMATING THE UNCERTAINTY OF POLICY EFFECTS IN NONLINEAR MODELS (1980) (28)
- Full Information Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconometric Model (1980) (28)
- College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency (2002) (28)
- An Evaluation of a Short-Run Forecasting Model (1974) (27)
- LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION, WAGE RATES, AND MONEY ILLUSION (1971) (27)
- On Controlling the Economy to Win Elections (1975) (25)
- A Criticism of One Class of Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations (1978) (23)
- On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks (2002) (23)
- A model of the balance of payments (1979) (22)
- THE USE OF OPTIMAL CONTROL TECHNIQUES TO MEASURE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE (1978) (22)
- Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy (2005) (22)
- Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s (2003) (21)
- Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation (2010) (21)
- Sources of Economic Fluctuations in the United States (1988) (20)
- Fed Policy and the Effects of a Stock Market Crash on the Economy (2000) (20)
- Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models (2001) (20)
- Testing price equations (2008) (19)
- Does the NAIRU Have the Right Dynamics (1999) (17)
- The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories, and New Keynesian Economics (1992) (17)
- Some Important Macro Points (2019) (17)
- Consumer sentiment, the stock market and consumption functions (1971) (17)
- A Model of Macroeconomic Activity: Volume I: The Theoretical Model (1974) (17)
- Estimated Stabilization Costs of the EMU (1998) (17)
- Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model (2007) (16)
- Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages among Countries (1981) (14)
- On Modeling the Economic Linkages among Countries (1977) (13)
- Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations (2001) (12)
- Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability (2010) (12)
- Estimation of Polynomial Distributed Lags and Leads with End Point Constraints (1989) (12)
- Full-information maximum likelihood program : user's guide (1971) (12)
- Household Wealth and Macroeconomic Activity: 2008–2013 (2017) (12)
- A Vote Equation and the 2004 Election (2004) (12)
- Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill (2010) (11)
- Estimated Inflation Costs Had European Unemployment Been Reduced in the 1980s by Macro Policies (1999) (11)
- Estimated, Calibrated, and Optimal Interest Rate Rules (2000) (11)
- Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages Amongcountries (1982) (10)
- Testing the NAIRU Model for 27 Countries (1997) (10)
- Testing Macroeconomic Models. (1996) (10)
- A note on the estimation of polynomial distributed lags (1971) (9)
- Estimated Costs of Contact in College and High School Male Sports (2017) (9)
- Reflections on macroeconometric modeling (2014) (9)
- Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Macroeconometric Model (1987) (9)
- Is There Empirical Support for the 'Modern' View of Macroeconomics? (2001) (9)
- Explaining the Labor Force Participation of Women 20-24 (1996) (9)
- Testing the Standard View of the Long-Run Unemployment-Inflation Relationship (1996) (8)
- The Use of Expected Future Variables in Macroeconometric Models (1984) (8)
- Inflation and Unemployment in a Macroeconometric Model (1997) (8)
- Does Monetary Policy Matter? Narrative Versus Structural Approaches (1989) (8)
- Computing Median Unbiased Estimates in Macroeconometric Models (1996) (8)
- Econometric Modeling as Information Aggregation (1987) (7)
- Sales Expectations and Short-Run Production Decisions (1971) (6)
- Estimated Effects of Relative Prices on Trade Shares (1981) (6)
- VAR Models as Structural Approximations (1988) (6)
- A Model of Macroeconomic Activity, Volume I: A Theoretical Model.@@@A Model of Macroeconomic Activity, Volume II: The Empirical Model. (1977) (6)
- Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections (2009) (6)
- Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits (2009) (5)
- Explaining the slow U.S. recovery: 2010–2017 (2018) (5)
- A Model of the World Economy (1976) (5)
- A Multicountry Econometric Model (1981) (5)
- Is monetary policy becoming less effective (1994) (5)
- Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2014 Update (2010) (5)
- Estimated Trade-Offs between Unemployment and Inflation (1984) (5)
- Estimated Effects of the October 1979 Change in Monetary Policy on the 1980 Economy (1980) (5)
- Estimating Exchange Rate Equations Using Estimated Expectations (2008) (5)
- Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior (1989) (4)
- What do price equations say about future inflation? (2021) (4)
- A Comparison of Fiml and Robust Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconomic Model (1973) (4)
- A Fiscal Policy Rule for Stabilization (1999) (4)
- A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best? (2007) (4)
- What Can Macroeconometric Models Say About Asia-Type Crises? (1999) (4)
- Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Presidential Elections (2006) (4)
- On Modeling the Effects of Government Policies (1979) (3)
- A Full-Information Maximum Likelihood Program (1972) (3)
- Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics (2005) (3)
- Wealth Effects on World Private Financial Saving (2014) (3)
- The short run demand for employment. (1968) (3)
- A Multicountry Econometric Model (Revised) (1979) (3)
- Evaluating the Information Content and Money Making Ability of Forecasts from Exchange Rate Equations (1997) (3)
- Estimates of the Bias of Lagged Dependent Variable Coefficient Estimates in Macroeconomic Equations (1992) (3)
- Comparing the Predictive Information Content of College Football Rankings (2002) (3)
- How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty? (2014) (3)
- A Comment on Feldstein's Fisher-Schultz Lecture (1981) (3)
- Risk Aversion and Stock Prices (2002) (3)
- 8 Estimating and Testing the US Model (1994) (3)
- Is Fiscal Stimulus a Good Idea? (2014) (3)
- Using a Macroeconometric Model to Analyze the 2008 – 2009 Recession and Thoughts on Macroeconomic Forecastability (2009) (2)
- Are Stock Returns and Output Growth Higher Under Democrats? (2021) (2)
- Effect of Expected Future Government Deficits on Current Economic Activity (1984) (2)
- No . 0701 February 2007 Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations (2007) (2)
- Estimated Costs of Contact in Men's Collegiate Sports (2017) (2)
- Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability: Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability (2012) (2)
- The Financial Crisis and Macroeconomic Activity: 2008-2013 (2015) (2)
- The Optimal Distribution of Income Revisited (2016) (2)
- No . 0701 February 2007 Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations (2007) (2)
- Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model Economics : The Open-Access (2007) (2)
- Experience with a Short-run Forecasting Model of the United States Economy (1974) (2)
- Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Determination (1986) (2)
- Sources of Output and Price Variability in a Macroeconometric Model (1986) (1)
- A comparison of alternative estimation of macroeconomic models (1971) (1)
- A World Macro Saving Fact and an Explanation (2011) (1)
- Branch Rickey’s Equation Fifty Years Later (2007) (1)
- U.S. Infrastructure: 1929-2017 (2019) (1)
- Estimating Term Structure Equations Using Macroeconomic Variables (2008) (1)
- Macroeconomics in the Classroom--No Longer Just Theory. (1985) (1)
- Variable Mismeasurement in a Class of DSGE Models: Comment (2019) (1)
- An Estimate of the Uncertainty of Policy Effects in a Macro-economic Model (1978) (1)
- Estimating Aging Effects in Running Events (2017) (1)
- A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models: Further Results (1984) (1)
- Information Content of DSGE Forecasts (2018) (1)
- Response [Econometrics and Presidential Elections] (1997) (1)
- A Model of Output, Employment, Wages and Prices in the U. K. (1976) (1)
- A note on the fed’s power to lower inflation (2022) (1)
- Appendix A Tables for the US Model (1994) (0)
- Estimated Costs of Injuries in College and High School Female Sports (2019) (0)
- Computational methods for macroeconometric models (1996) (0)
- THE RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS HYPOTHESIS IN MACROECONOMETRIC MODELS (1997) (0)
- Cambridge, MA 02138 (1987) (0)
- 10 Analyzing Properties of Models (1994) (0)
- What it Takes to Solve the U.S. Government Deficit Problem (2012) (0)
- 11 Analyzing Properties of the US Model (1994) (0)
- Is Fiscal Stimulus a Good Idea? (2014) (0)
- The Great Gatsby: Yale, Princeton, Columbia, Harvard, Oxford (2000) (0)
- Announcement: A Program to Solve an Econometric Model (1977) (0)
- Can the Government Affect Real Output?: A Critique of Models with Rational Expectations (1977) (0)
- Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models: Comment (2019) (0)
- Policy Effects in a Model of the Balance of Payments (1977) (0)
- Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics Ray C . Fair (2005) (0)
- Trade Models and Macroeconomics (2019) (0)
- The joint determination of production, employment, and investment decisions (1971) (0)
- An Outline of a Multicountry Econometric Model (1983) (0)
- 9 Testing the MC Model (1994) (0)
- How Should the FED Report Uncertainty? (2012) (0)
- Explaining the slow U.S. recovery: 2010–2017 (2018) (0)
- CHAF ?-ER SIX On Modeling the Economic Linkages among Countries (1997) (0)
- Some Important Macro Points Ray C (2019) (0)
- 6 The Stochastic Equations of the ROW Model (1994) (0)
- 3 The Data, Variables, and Equations (1994) (0)
- Capital-labor substitution and the demand for capacity (1971) (0)
- Analysis of Nine U.S. Recessions and Three Expansions (2020) (0)
- 4 Estimating and Testing Single Equations (1994) (0)
- Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of Deficit Targeting (1986) (0)
- 7 Estimating and Testing Complete Models (1994) (0)
- Reflections on Macro-Econometric Modeling (2014) (0)
- Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections Ray C (2007) (0)
- A Model of Macroeconomic Activity: Volume 1, The Theoretical Model. Volume 2, The Empirical Model. (1977) (0)
- The US Model Workbook (2012) (0)
- Properties of a multicountry econometric model (1987) (0)
- 12 Analyzing Properties of the MC Model (1994) (0)
- Information Content of DSGE Forecasts : Preliminary Results (2016) (0)
- Information Limits of Aggregate Data (2015) (0)
- MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF LINEAR EQUATION SYSTEMS WITH AUTO-REGRESSIVE RESIDUALS’ BY GKECORY (1997) (0)
- ESTIMATES OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MONETARY POLICY BY RAY C . FAIR COWLES FOUNDATION PAPER NO (2006) (0)
- Appendix Β Tables for the ROW Model (1994) (0)
- BOOTSTRAPPING MACROECONOMETRIC MODELS BY RAY C. FAIR COWLES (2006) (0)
- BOOKSTRAPPING MACROECONOMIC MODELS (2003) (0)
- FAIRMODEL SITE (1998) (0)
- Aggregate price changes and price expectations (1970) (0)
- Retrospective Voting Versus Risk-Aversion Voting: A Comment on Pástor and Veronesi (2020) (2021) (0)
- Presidential Vote Predictions Using Stochastic Simulation and Estimated Probability of a Recession Before the Election: 0.08 (2019) (0)
- econstor Make Your Publications Visible . A Service of zbw (2007) (0)
- Estimation of polynomial distributed and leads with end point constraints (1997) (0)
- The MCD Model Workbook (2009) (0)
- Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities from State Probability Data (2004) (0)
- A Mini Version of the US Model (2016) (0)
- [What Ends Recessions?]: Comment (1994) (0)

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