Robert L. Winkler*

Robert L. Winkler*'s AcademicInfluence.com Rankings

Robert L. Winkler*

Mathematics

#5276

World Rank

#7436

Historical Rank

Operations Research

#28

World Rank

#28

Historical Rank

Measure Theory

#663

World Rank

#904

Historical Rank

mathematics Degrees

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Mathematics

Robert L. Winkler*'s Degrees

PhD Operations Research Stanford University
Masters Operations Research Stanford University

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Robert L. Winkler*'s Published Works

Number of citations in a given year to any of this author's works

Total number of citations to an author for the works they published in a given year. This highlights publication of the most important work(s) by the author

Published Works

The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition (1982) (1401)
Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions (1976) (718)
A General Framework for Forecast Verification (1987) (697)
Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results (1983) (610)
Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis (1999) (582)
Statistics : Probability, Inference and Decision (1975) (479)
Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources (1981) (457)
The Assessment of Prior Distributions in Bayesian Analysis (1967) (413)
The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions (1968) (376)
An Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision (1972) (358)
Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature (1977) (350)
Combining Economic Forecasts (1986) (333)
“Good” Probability Assessors (1968) (332)
Interactive Elicitation of Opinion for a Normal Linear Model (1980) (324)
Probability Forecasting in Meteorology (1984) (324)
Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts (1992) (271)
Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors (1969) (271)
Uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment (1996) (266)
Limits for the Precision and Value of Information from Dependent Sources (1985) (256)
Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities (1996) (216)
Hailfinder: A Bayesian system for forecasting severe weather (1996) (215)
The Combination of Forecasts (1983) (211)
The Optimizer's Curse: Skepticism and Postdecision Surprise in Decision Analysis (2006) (210)
Separating probability elicitation from utilities (1988) (205)
Simple robust averages of forecasts: Some empirical results (2008) (191)
The Quantification of Judgment: Some Methodological Suggestions (1967) (185)
The Forecasting accuracy of major time series methods (1986) (167)
A Decision-Theoretic Approach to Interval Estimation (1972) (152)
Scoring rules in probability assessment and evaluation (1970) (152)
The Determination of Partial Moments (1972) (150)
Evaluating and Combining Physicians' Probabilities of Survival in an Intensive Care Unit (1993) (149)
Probabilistic Prediction: Some Experimental Results (1971) (149)
Experiments in the laboratory and the real world (1973) (135)
Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts (1980) (131)
Combining forecasts: A philosophical basis and some current issues (1989) (126)
Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles? (2012) (119)
Assessing Dependence: Some Experimental Results (2000) (108)
Decision modeling and rational choice: AHP and utility theory (1990) (102)
Multiple Experts vs. Multiple Methods: Combining Correlation Assessments (2004) (100)
Advances in Decision Analysis: Aggregating Probability Distributions (2007) (93)
Scoring Rules, Generalized Entropy, and Utility Maximization (2008) (92)
Evaluating probabilities: asymmetric scoring rules (1994) (90)
Nonlinear Utility and the Probability Score (1970) (86)
Are two (inexperienced) heads better than one (experienced) head? Averaging house officers' prognostic judgments for critically ill patients. (1990) (83)
Unanimity and compromise among probability forecasters (1990) (79)
Forecasting: theory and practice (2020) (78)
Sensitivity of Weights in Combining Forecasts (1992) (78)
Coherent combination of experts' opinions (1995) (76)
Evaluating Decision Strategies for Equity of Public Risks (1985) (75)
Risky Choices and Correlated Background Risk (2005) (75)
Risk Sharing and Group Decision Making (1981) (73)
Assessing the Value of Frost Forecasts to Orchardists: A Dynamic Decision-Making Approach (1982) (73)
Learning, Experimentation, and the Optimal Output Decisions of a Competitive Firm (1982) (71)
OPTIMAL SPECULATION AGAINST AN EFFICIENT MARKET (1976) (70)
Warner's Randomized Response Model: A Bayesian Approach (1979) (70)
Aggregating Point Estimates: A Flexible Modeling Approach (1993) (69)
Multiattribute Utility Satisfying a Preference for Combining Good with Bad (2009) (68)
The Accuracy of Extrapolation (Time Series) Methods (1982) (68)
A BAYESIAN MODEL FOR PORTFOLIO SELECTION AND REVISION (1975) (65)
Personal probabilities of probabilities (1975) (65)
Expert resolution (1986) (64)
Probability Elicitation, Scoring Rules, and Competition Among Forecasters (2007) (62)
Generalized Almost Stochastic Dominance (2014) (59)
Sampling Distributions of Post-sample Forecasting Errors (1989) (58)
Credible Interval Temperature Forecasting: Some Experimental Results (1974) (58)
Implications of errors in survey data: a Bayesian model (1992) (57)
Evaluating Quantile Assessments (2009) (55)
subjective probability forecasting experiments in meteorology: some preliminary results (1974) (53)
Calibrating and Combining Precipitation Probability Forecasts (1987) (51)
Screening probability forecasts: contrasts between choosing and combining (1995) (48)
Probability Forecasts and Their Combination: A Research Perspective (2018) (41)
Decision Making with Multiattribute Performance Targets: The Impact of Changes in Performance and Target Distributions (2007) (41)
Judgments under Uncertainty (2006) (41)
Combining Interval Forecasts (2016) (40)
forecasters and probability forecasts: some current problems1,2 (1971) (40)
The Role of Informative Priors in Zero-Numerator Problems (2002) (40)
Sensitivity to Distance and Baseline Distributions in Forecast Evaluation (2009) (40)
Modifying Variability and Correlations in Winner-Take-All Contests (2004) (40)
Ambiguity, probability, preference, and decision analysis (1991) (39)
Repetitive decision making and the value of forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation: a dynamic model (1985) (39)
Multiple Criteria Decision Making (1973) (38)
The M5 uncertainty competition: Results, findings and conclusions (2021) (38)
WHY BAYESIAN ANALYSIS HASN'T CAUGHT ON IN HEALTHCARE DECISION MAKING (2001) (37)
State of the Art: RESEARCH DIRECTIONS IN DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY* (1982) (36)
Tailored Scoring Rules for Probabilities (2011) (35)
Between First- and Second-Order Stochastic Dominance (2017) (34)
Probability Forecasts: A Survey of National Weather Service Forecasters (1974) (34)
Bayesian Models for Forecasting Future Security Prices (1973) (32)
Multivariate Concave and Convex Stochastic Dominance (2010) (31)
Strategic Choice of Variability in Multiround Contests and Contests with Handicaps (2004) (31)
Ambiguity and decision modeling: A preference-based approach (1992) (29)
Competitive Bidding with Dependent Value Estimates (1980) (28)
The value of climate information: A decision‐analytic approach (1983) (28)
Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity to Bracketing, and Sharing Business Payoffs (2016) (27)
The effect of nonstationarity on combined forecasts (1992) (26)
On multivariate quantiles under partial orders (2009) (26)
Why do some combinations perform better than others? (2020) (25)
Informational Differences Between Limit and Market Orders for a Market Maker (1981) (25)
Nonstationarity and Portfolio Choice (1976) (24)
Adaptive Forecasting Models Based on Predictive Distributions (1978) (23)
An Assessment of the Risk of Chronic Lung Injury Attributable to Long-Term Ozone Exposure (1995) (22)
Probabilistic temperature forecasts: The case for an operational program (1979) (21)
On Equivalent Target-Oriented Formulations for Multiattribute Utility (2006) (21)
Several Bayesians: A review (1993) (20)
Repeated gambles, learning, and risk aversion (1992) (20)
Aggregating Forecasts: An Empirical Evaluation of Some Bayesian Methods (1996) (19)
Rewarding Expertise in Probability Assessment (1977) (19)
The Role of Attitude Toward Risk in Strictly Competitive Decision-Making Situations (1978) (16)
Analysis of Alternative National Ambient Carbon Monoxide Standards (1984) (16)
De Finetti’s Methods of Elicitation (1987) (15)
The Importance of Communicating Uncertainties in Forecasts: Overestimating the Risks from Winter Storm Juno (2015) (15)
Equal Versus Differential Weighting in Combining Forecasts (2015) (15)
Performance-Based Incentive Plans (1980) (15)
The Use of Credible Intervals in Temperature Forecasting: Some Experimental Results (1977) (15)
On the choice of a consensus distribution in Bayesian analysis (1972) (14)
Bayesian point estimation and prediction (1974) (14)
On seeking a best performance measure or a best forecasting method (1992) (14)
Forecasters and Probability Forecasts: the Responses to a Questionnaire (1971) (14)
The Use of Probabilities in Subjective Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: Some Experimental Results (1985) (13)
Decision Theory and Social Ethics: Issues in Social Choice. (1979) (12)
Between First and Second-Order Stochastic Dominance (2015) (12)
Bayesian statistics: An overview. (1993) (12)
Market structure: The specialist as dealer and broker (1986) (12)
Casey's Problem: Interpreting and Evaluating a New Test (1999) (12)
Data Base Error Trapping and Prediction (1991) (12)
Subjective Probabilistic Tornado Forecasts: Some Experimental Results (1982) (12)
Comments on: Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities, with an application to ensemble predictions of surface winds (2008) (10)
All Roads Lead to Risk Preference: A Turnpike Theorem for Conditionally Independent Returns (1989) (10)
Scoring Rules, Entropy, and Imprecise Probabilities (2007) (10)
Research needs and the phenomena of decisionmaking and operations (1985) (10)
On the Generalizability of Experimental Results (1974) (9)
On Uncertainty in Medical Testing (2004) (9)
Multiattribute One-Switch Utility (2012) (9)
Introduction to Decision Theory.@@@Statistical Decision Theory With Business and Economic Applications: A Bayesian Approach. (1980) (9)
[Combining Probability Distributions: A Critique and an Annotated Bibliography]: Comment (1986) (8)
Point and Area Precipitation Probability Forecasts: Some Experimental Results (1976) (8)
Murder and (of?) the likelihood principle: A Trialogue (1990) (8)
Information Aggregation in Probabilistic Prediction (1973) (8)
When to Abandon a Research Project and Search for a New One (2018) (7)
A Bayesian Approach to Nonstationary Processes (1973) (7)
Extremizing and Anti-Extremizing in Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts (2017) (5)
Assessing the risk of chronic lung injury attributable to long-term ozone exposure (1991) (5)
Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts (2017) (5)
Duality Between Maximization of Expected Utility and Minimization of Relative Entropy When Probabilities are Imprecise (2009) (5)
Concepts and applications of modern decision models (1977) (4)
Subjective Probability Forecasting in the Real World: Some Experimental Results (1973) (4)
Intuitive bayesian point estimation (1970) (4)
Ranking Distributions when only Means and Variances are Known (2020) (4)
The impact of testing errors on value of information: A quality-control example (1995) (4)
Multivariate Almost Stochastic Dominance (2018) (4)
Experimental point and area precipitation probability forecasts for a forecast area with significant local effects (1977) (4)
Comment Bayesian Model Building and Forecasting (1985) (4)
Statistical Analysis: Theory Versus Practice (1974) (4)
Averaging Probability Forecasts: Back to the Future (2018) (4)
The Elicitation of Continuous Probability Distributions (1973) (4)
[Quantifying Probabilistic Expressions]: Comment: Representing and Communicating Uncertainty (1990) (3)
Book Review:Management Decision Making Under Uncertainty: An Introduction to Probability and Statistical Decision Theory. T. R. Dyckman, S. Smidt, A. K. McAdams (1971) (3)
Subjective Probability Forecasting: Some Real World Experiments (1975) (3)
A Health Risk Assessment for Use in Setting the U.S. Primary Ozone Standard (1989) (2)
Evaluation of Probabilities: A Level Playing Field? (1999) (2)
Risk assessment: Consulting the experts (1981) (2)
Nonstationary Means in a Multinormal Process (1973) (2)
Combining Patient Utility with Health Status Assessment to Improve Medical Decision Making (1996) (2)
Some Probability Paradoxes in Choice from Among Random Alternatives: Comment (1972) (1)
Acute Ozone Exposure-Response Relationships for Use in Health Risk Assessment (1991) (1)
Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions: Comment (1975) (1)
Resolute and Correlated Bayesians (2022) (1)
Evaluating Quantile Forecasts in the M5 Uncertainty Competition (2022) (1)
[Statisticians Can Matter]: Comment (1978) (1)
Normativity, Epistemic Rationality, and Noisy Statistical Evidence (2021) (1)
Bayesian Statistical Analysis of Experimental Data (1973) (1)
Coordinating Editor and Applications Editor (1978) (0)
Decisions with Several Objectives under Uncertainty: Sufficient Conditions for Multivariate Almost Stochastic Dominance Based on Means and Variances (2021) (0)
Dynamic Generalized Linear Models and Bayesian Forecasting: Comment (1985) (0)
Rethinking the Foundations of Statistics: Separating Probability Elicitation from Utilities (1999) (0)
Uncertainty about Processes That Shift over Time: Modeling and Analysis: Comment (1989) (0)
Chapter 2 Multivariate Concave and Convex Stochastic Dominance (2017) (0)
Book Review:An Introduction to Bayesian Statistical Decision Processes. Bruce W. Morgan (1969) (0)
Index of authors, volume 175, 2012 (2012) (0)
Statistical Practice The Role of Informative Priors in Zero-Numerator Problems: Being Conservative Versus Being Candid (2002) (0)
OF FINANCIAL AND QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS JUNE 1976 NOHSTATIONARITY AND PORTFOLIO CHOICE (2009) (0)
Are Two (Inexperienced) Heads Better Than One (Experienced) Head? Averaging House Officers?? Prognostic Judgments for Critically Ill Patients (1992) (0)
ON THE GENERALIZABILITY OF EXPERIMENTAL (1974) (0)
Time series models for count or qualitative observations: A.C. Harvey and C. Fernandes, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 7 (1989) 407-422 (1991) (0)
Basic statistics : a user oriented approach (manuscript) (1981) (0)
2010 / 44 Multivariate concave and convex stochastic dominance (2010) (0)
Tables of nth Order Partial Moments About the Origin for the Standard Normal Distribution, n = 1(1)6 (1970) (0)
Book Review:Statistical Analysis for Business Decisions. William S. Peters, George W. Summers (1968) (0)
Exploring Statistics with the IBM P. C.@@@Introduction to Statistical Computer Packages.@@@ISP: Interactive Statistical Programs.@@@IBM PC Statistics: Basic Programs and Applications.@@@Minitab Handbook.@@@Conversational Statistics in Education and Psychology with IDA. (1986) (0)
Risk and Energy Systems: Deterministic versus Probabilistic Models (1973) (0)
Warm Weather: A Preliminary Look at a Limited Sample of Data (1974) (0)
Information Aggregation inProbabilistic Prediction (1973) (0)
Statistical and Methodological Issues in Psychology and Social Sciences Research (1982) (0)
A Bayesian Approach to Portfolio Selection and Revision (1973) (0)
The Value of Information in Speculative Markets (1974) (0)

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Robert L. Winkler*'s Academic­Influence.com Rankings

Robert L. Winkler*'s Degrees

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Robert L. Winkler*'s Published Works

Published Works

What Schools Are Affiliated With Robert L. Winkler*?

Robert L. Winkler*'s AcademicInfluence.com Rankings